How much time do new gTLDs need to reach maturity?

So a lot of people are saying that new gTLDs are a failure, they’re crashing and burning and .COM is and forever will be the only investment-grade domain extension. I disagree. Of course this is just my opinion, I don’t have any more information than you do, all I have is my observations and opinions.

Let me be a bit more clear by what I mean here.

First, I do think that most (i.e. more than 50%) of the new gTLDs will crash and burn. They are junk and no matter how many promos they run, people won’t keep renewing. That being said, I do think that a number of new gTLDs will survive the storm and go on to become accepted by normal people.

Some of the new gTLDs that I think will be around for the long haul are extensions like .APP and .CLUB. I don’t think it’s an incredibly long list, but I can tell you that it’s probably very unlikely that every new gTLD will fail, instead, I think most people just haven’t set realistic expectations around when a new gTLD will reach maturity.

I think that it will probably take 10 – 15 years for a new gTLD to reach maturity. What do I mean by maturity? I mean the amount of time it will take for consumers to really know about the extension and think logically about typing it into their browser.

So I think it’s a bit early to call out clear winners or losers, and definitely way to early to say that new gTLDs as a whole are a failure. At the same time I think it’s important to realize that a new gTLD can be a success without it being a good investment for Domainers. IMO, success means people actually using a new gTLD and the people that operate the new gTLD making good money and seeing their business continue to grow ever year.

That’s my two cents. What do you think? I want to hear from you – comment and let your voice be heard!

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{ 9 comments… add one }

  • Vivek June 28, 2018, 11:37 pm

    I agree with you Morgan.
    The challenge is that people who “decide” if a gTLD is a success or not are mostly domainers and domain investors. But the success and failure of a gTLD is decided by the action of the end users and they are the ones who will decide on the maturity timeline.
    Just because a domain in new gTLD does not fetch 10X on resale, does not mean it is a failure, it might work well for the end user but may not be unique.
    The benchmark of ROI in domain investing has always been VERY HIGH as compared to other industries where a 10 fold return is considered outstanding, but not in domain investing.

    Reply
  • Paul McMenamy June 29, 2018, 12:54 am

    Good article. Morgan, name a few extensions you think will “crash and burn”. Best wishes.

    Reply
  • steve brady June 29, 2018, 1:54 am

    There’s probably fiction novels that sat on book store shelves for 20 years before becoming New Times Bestsellers.

    Reply
  • Snoopy June 29, 2018, 2:31 am

    They will never be widely known. .biz, .jobs, .travel, .info are nearly 20 years old and aren’t widely known. Spilt it between 1000 new extensions and consumer awareness has no hope.

    Reply
  • rathead June 29, 2018, 3:38 am

    they’e already reached maturity. now they’re just starting to rot.

    Reply
  • George June 29, 2018, 7:46 am

    “I think that it will probably take 10 – 15 years for a new gTLD to reach maturity.”
    Sorry, I personally, have .com.
    http://www.ricksblog.com/2018/06/is-the-domain-industry-brain-dead-or-just-stupid-and-foolish-and-a-namescon-secret-i-have-never-revealed-until-now/

    Reply
  • Green Jobs June 29, 2018, 10:07 am

    50+ years 🙂

    Reply
  • Tom S June 29, 2018, 10:59 am

    While com will continue to be the top extension for most of the world, I do think it will loose some of it’s appeal to future generations. Younger internet users are use to a wide variety of choices. Some have no problem building their websites on a non-com domain. They are looking for something different or unique. I sold an XYZ to someone who works for Google who wanted that particular name.

    Reply
    • Snoopy June 29, 2018, 11:39 pm

      Instagram.com, Facebook.com, Snapchat.com.

      Young people only know .com.

      Reply

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