Is now the best time to buy or sell LLLL.com’s?

LLLL-dot-coms

Here’s the million dollar question, okay for most it’s the tens of thousand dollar question but let’s get a bit more dramatic to keep things exciting. It’s no secret that buyers in China were buying LLLL .com domain names last year at a stronger clip than ever before.

Then 2016 came and now there is speculation of a massive flood of LLLL .COM’s back into the market as Chinese investors dump these just as fast as they bought them.

I’ve never been a big LLLL.com investor, I’ve always liked words, and really like one and two-word .COMs. I have little skin in the LLLL .COM game outside of a handful of names, but I’m still in for north of $20k so I do care what happens, but either way I’m not predicting anything life-changing for me personally one way or another.

Still I’m scratching my head now and wondering, could 2016 be the year to buy LLLL .COM’s at a huge discount as fear spreads? Or is this the beginning of a major devaluation in what was just a few short months ago one of the hottest category of domain names out there.

What do you think? Is this the year to buy LLLL .COMs or is now time to get rid of them and replace with one and two-word .COM’s? I wish I had all the answers but I don’t – what do you think, comment and let your voice be heard!

{ 12 comments… add one }

  • Joseph Peterson March 9, 2016, 7:23 pm

    What drove growth in prices? Attracting more and more buyers. Why did they buy? They saw rising prices. What can they do to keep prices rising after they buy? Attract more buyers! That’s why I’ve described the Chinese surge as an unintentional, crowd-sourced pyramid scheme. Sooner or later, that house of cards always collapses.

    Much of the rapid appreciation we saw in LLLL.com CHIPs during 2015 was driven by buyers who saw fast growth and wanted to get in on the action, riding the price spike while it lasted. That feeding frenzy, fueled by lots of publicity and buzz (as well as some outright hype), caused the rate of appreciation to accelerate.

    As a result of that unsustainable rate of acceleration, we’d expect prices to overshoot real value … like a bicycle that goes fast enough to jump off a bump, go airborne, and reach a high peak. We had a few months of hang time. But what goes up must come down.

    These domains do have “intrinsic” value, based on usage and end-user budgets. But few traders
    in this sector were buying based on that. They weren’t buying at wholesale prices tuned to the probability of retail end-user flips. Those wholesale prices were exceeded quite awhile ago. Arguably, even retail end-user prices were surpassed. End user behavior in 2016 is pretty much what it was in 2014.

    Instead of “intinsic” usage-based value, the focus has been an “arbitrary” value. As tokens, domains can trade at $50 or $500,000 – whatever. As long as a large number of people agree that the “currency” is worth that much. Trouble is, this “token market” is unregulated. People are printing more and more bills in new TLDs. 140,000 .SITE domains in a single day – mostly 6Ns and CHIPs. Similar behavior in .RED, .PET, .XYZ, etc. Anything will do. Scarcity is an illusion because there is always more. And the absurd hope is that all these bills, no matter how many we print, will ALL go up and up in purchasing power!

    Right now, Chinese speculators see that the earlier categories have been declining for 3+ months. Since their primary interest hasn’t been the actual stuff they’re buying but (rather) chasing high growth rates, they are fleeing those earlier asset classes and gambling in new areas – mainly at $1 or less per domain.

    The goal is to replicate the phenomenon of the 2015 surge somewhere else, since the earlier categories are used up. They’re too far along in a boom/bust cycle or (if you prefer) too satured, too “mature” for high rates of appreciation. But in 5N .PET domains, a person might still hope to flip for 10x or 100x profit.

    Facing this, LLLL.com CHIPs are unlikely to grow as they did in 2015. They’ll probably continue to decline before leveling off. If there’s a panic selloff and prices go dow fast, then the category will undershoot real value temporarily. That’s the time to buy if you’re a buyer (which I’m not). My guess is that this bubble will see a slow deflation lasting a year rather than a sudden balloon pop. Wherever prices level off, prices will be higher than they were before the surge.

    Classic underdamped system on the way up. But I think it’s overdamped on the way down. Google those terms if you want to see the graphs. My prediction has remained unchanged since September of 2015. Plenty of people told me then (while prices were rising) that I’m clueless. Maybe I’m wrong. But I think CHIPs have farther to fall.

    Reply
  • Eric the eel March 10, 2016, 4:15 am

    4L CHIPS prices will continue to drop. Average price will be 20% lower within 60days and 60% within 6 months. SELL
    4L NON Chips average price will drop by 25% within price within 60 days. SELL
    4L Words (any language) will continue to rise in price. BUY BUY BUY
    4L Pronounceables (any letters) average prices will hold for 90 days. BUY SELECTIVELY

    Reply
  • Artour Babaevsky March 10, 2016, 4:42 am

    Two things:

    1) LLLL.com domains. We’ve had issues with LLLL.coms on previous websites. Some brokers lobbied to bring them back for sale, feeling that they deserved another chance. That was a mistake. Any LLLL.com owner is an ass, and we won’t be working with them again.

    2) As long as we’re buying domains, we are also firing the lawyers that we’ve been working with on the LLLL.com sales. They will be replaced using www-lawyer.com, and we hope to get this turned around before the asswatchers sale later this month.

    Reply
  • Piotr March 10, 2016, 6:10 am

    Let’s call it what it is: the chinese have given away hundreds of millions of dollars, to never see it back. To be blunt, they got raped by the Western capitalims.

    And to answer your question, it’s time to sell – you can still sell SOME of your inventory and get SOME money back.

    The above don’t apply to pronounceable 4-letter .com’s, as they are whole another category and, in my opinion, are still very much underpriced.

    Reply
  • Joe March 10, 2016, 8:22 am

    What is fashionable never lost for a moment his style clares see more things than before.

    The world changes per second will not change the Chinese in this h market other markets just reading the Chinese news losing every day but is not a danger to such a large market and extension to get the Chinese in Africa, soon we think extensions in black africa as Chinese open a very large outdoor market.

    The reason for LLLL.com all is to think whether it is good or it is not each have our ideas I have them clearer than ever, success in numbers, in convertible keywords in three letters and a number and give with .co the result of google, it’s not mine must leave it for tomorrow today.

    Just yesterday one word to write @Robert in his post get domain names two words, do not waste time and I did in the past.

    I eat, if you already have you done that you take.

    Reply
  • RaTHeaD March 10, 2016, 9:17 am

    @Joseph P…
    | “an unintentional, crowd-sourced pyramid scheme” |
    i like it. perfect description.

    Reply
  • Amanda March 10, 2016, 2:57 pm

    I agree with Joseph because what I have seen the last few weeks is that people are reporting a decline in value regarding LLLL.com s. This may or may not mean this Chinese trend may be over by the end of this year.

    Reply
  • Todd March 10, 2016, 11:26 pm

    Is now the best time to buy or sell LLLL.com’s? BUY.
    I own thousands of LLLL.com and have focused on this niche for 15 years. My inventory receives tens of thousands of inquiries/offers per year. End-user offers are up, end-user sales are up and end-user prices are up.

    Reply
  • Jijo Pappachan March 11, 2016, 10:26 am

    What has triggered the panic is the LNPQR thing they introduced to streamline the 5L.com registrations.

    So, I think it is temporary but could decline further and will be a good opportunity to stock up more at that time. How much would it decline? I think one should be realistic and think that guys who bought it for higher values are not going to dump them that easily. I am not going to think it will fall like cards.

    Think about it as real estate in California going down to the level of an another lesser appraised locality but everybody knows the intrinsic value is much and would buy them up for sure.

    Reply
  • Just a fool April 1, 2016, 12:11 am

    Dutch tulip bulbs, anyone? Yes, there are a few LLLL .com that may have value. I have bought a few for under $100 in the past few years. Some novelties for personal use. One of them has Google Apps for Business with 200 user limit for free. Would that increase it’s value?

    With NO real intrinsic value ANY domain name is worth exactly as much as the market will bear. There is no rigorous, repeatable, verifiable appraisal process. No way to know what to make as an initial offer. Buyers may consider reasonable what DN investors consider LOW-BALL.

    It seems that some PRO domainers have a strategy to acquire huge portfolios and hold out for exorbitant prices. How is that different from cybersqatting?

    Reply
  • Just a fool April 1, 2016, 12:33 am

    Dutch tulip bulbs, anyone?

    Yes, there are a few LLLL .com that may have good value. I have bought a few for under $100 ( some under $50) in the past few years. Some novelties. Some for personal use. One of them has Google Apps for Business with a 200 user limit, for free. Would that increase its value?

    With NO real intrinsic value ANY domain name is worth exactly as much as the market will bear. There is no rigorous, repeatable, verifiable appraisal process. No way to know what to make as a boba-fide initial offer. Buyers may consider an offer very reasonable while DN investors consider it LOW-BALL and don’t even get the courtesy of a counter offer.

    It seems that some PRO domainers have a strategy to acquire huge portfolios, park them, and hold out for exorbitant prices. How is that different from Cybersquatting?

    OFFICIALLY ::

    Cybersquatting (also known as domain squatting), according to the United States federal law known as the Anticybersquatting Consumer Protection Act, is registering, trafficking in, or using an Internet domain name with bad faith intent to profit from the goodwill of a trademark belonging to someone else.
    Cybersquatting – Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
    Wikipedia › wiki › Cybersquatting

    Reply
  • Just a fool April 1, 2016, 12:55 am

    Dutch tulip bulbs, anyone?

    Yes, there are a few LLLL .com that may have considerable value. On the other ☜ ☞ hand, I have acquired a few LLLL .com for under $100 ( some under $50) in the past few years. Some novelties. Some for personal use. One of them has Google Apps for Business with a 200 user limit, for free. Would that increase its value?

    With NO real intrinsic value ANY domain name is worth exactly as much as the market will bear. There is no rigorous, repeatable, verifiable appraisal process. No way to know what to make as a bona-fide initial offer. Buyers may consider an offer very reasonable while DN investors consider it LOW-BALL and don’t even get the courtesy of a counter offer.

    It seems that some PRO domainers have a strategy to speculatively acquire huge portfolios, park them at auction sites that have no initial offer specified, and hold out for exorbitant prices. How is that different from Cybersquatting?

    Okay, OFFICIALLY ::

    Cybersquatting (also known as domain squatting), according to the United States federal law known as the Anticybersquatting Consumer Protection Act, is registering, trafficking in, or using an Internet domain name with bad faith intent to profit from the goodwill of a trademark belonging to someone else.
    Cybersquatting – Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
    Wikipedia › wiki › Cybersquatting

    Reply

Leave a Comment