Let’s Be Honest, When It Comes To New gTLDs – It’s All In The Data

Over the last year the Domain Name blogosphere has made a major pivot as new gTLDs have quickly become the focus. While some readers are getting a little gTLD’ed out, many are enjoying staying informed and watching it unfold. It doesn’t matter whether you think the new gTLDs are incredible or you think they’re going to crash and burn, you still want to see the data.

Which brings me to exactly that, the data. 

Right now there are a lot of assumptions on both sides. Many new gTLDs are setting their sights high with goals of hundreds of thousands or millions of registrations in their first year. On the other side are the new gTLD naysayers who say nobody will hit a million registrations and most will go bust.

The problem we have right now is that we really don’t have enough data to know. All we can go with are assumptions, of course another word for assumption is guess and that’s just what we’re doing, guessing.

I’m a big believer in people, so I believe in new gTLDs run by people who have a proven track record of building successful businesses. I think some of these people will hit or exceed their goals, and some will not. Still, like all of you, this is just an assumption and until a 2-3 years goes by we won’t really know who’s assumptions are true.

What I think is important for us to remember is that we are all one industry. Yes, the new gTLDs have divided us but over the next 5-10 years we’re going to need to stick together. So while you might feel strongly either for or against the new gTLDs just remember that you are sparring with your fellow domainsapien.

So get passionate, say what’s on your mind, stick it to them, but remember, at the end of the day if we’re all divided in ten years the domain world is going to be a much smaller place. I couldn’t be more proud to be a part of such an incredible industry with so many amazing people, let’s usher in this new era together and remember, until we have some data, it’s all just assumptions.

{ 12 comments… add one }

  • John McCormac May 20, 2014, 12:10 am

    One of the major differences between the older and larger TLDs and the new gTLDs is that Landrush phases that would have taken six months to complete are taking a few days, or weeks in some cases, to complete. There’s a lot of talk about data on the domainer blogs but much of it is the classic fanboyism stuff promoting new gTLDs. There are others who are more cynical about the new gTLDs. The truth lies somewhere in between. Right now, the new gTLD landscape resembles a bottle of champagne. Some people are going to end up happy but a few bubbles will be burst in the process. But nobody will know which is which until the hangover of the first year’s renewals.

  • sukhjin May 20, 2014, 1:19 am

    with all respect to you @morgan, exactly what am talking about data, but not fake data, unlike posting the sales of .xyz which are not real, but assumptions and shill bidding by registry itself.

    I know you are try trying to help your buddy, but lets talk about real accurate data. Once again thanks for the post

    • Morgan May 20, 2014, 8:27 am

      @sukhjin – what negative data do you have about .XYZ? It’s a pretty major thing to say that someone is committing shill bidding, do you have any proof of this?

  • Samit May 20, 2014, 3:18 am

    We don’t have ALL the data, but the data we do have does tell a tale all of it’s own.

    Think the biggest mistake made by newgTLD registries is to price out domain investors.

    As you sow…

    • Morgan May 20, 2014, 8:26 am

      @Samit – why do you think new gTLD registries need domain investors? Every successful TLD on the planet has been build by people actually putting the names to use, not a bunch of people buying them…

  • yozni May 20, 2014, 5:37 am

    It seems painfully obvious to me that they are all going to fail. No diff between the new .crap and .mobi. How .retarded

    • Morgan May 20, 2014, 8:25 am

      @yonzi – that’s what everyone said about .COM back in 1995 🙂

  • albert May 20, 2014, 9:08 am

    Basically, Time Will Tell.
    I don’t think they will do that great to the general pubic, but in a limited circle, such as business to business, or niches likes clubs may do good.

  • Joe May 20, 2014, 10:14 am

    Think of the new gTLD is best of all, I read this in the news now and in your post is nothing true chance.
    Initially make comments on these extensions and now see many of them to be as start many years with generic domain names.
    What I dislike is pre-…………, those in the market able to register very possibly next June.
    I for one do not expect others to say what I think first disaster now do not think so, they are a good investment.

  • Jonathan May 20, 2014, 11:26 am

    Well, you can actually predict pretty accurately with the current data. I remember during the last 2 National Elections, that was happening. Take Nate Silver. Looking at the data he had, got 49 out of 50 states right in 2008 and went 50 for 50 in the last one. We know most of the regs happen early, not later. We know most of these are niche extensions, so there won’t be keywords in the future that make sense, even available. Most of the good ones aren’t even available at the beginning since they’re reserved or snapped up very early. We know that with more coming out, most of these will just get buried. We can see most of these are just doing poorly. We can see that they’re not meeting original expectations, .club will be lucky to hit 10% of what they expected. So, we have lots of data to go on. And it just doesn’t look good.

  • Christopher Hofman May 24, 2014, 8:47 am

    Yozni, can I use that comment in a couple of years for laughs?

    It’s not fail or success of the new gtlds. Many will fail, but you will still have lots which will be used

  • Clare May 27, 2014, 10:18 am

    I think Morgan you are exactly right it is going to take a while for us to really understand what the data tells us about the popularity of these new GTLD’s, and I don’t think 5 years is an unreasonable estimate. Remember despite Godaddy’s TV campaign during primetime for the .club extension all the talk and buzz around these domains is really amongst the domaining community – the average person on the street probably has no clue about these and therefore their value is really limited to a small subset of their potential customer base. It is my expectation that we will start to see interest increase once they are actually being used in high profile everyday marketing campaigns. As an aside note I think a lot of them will do well as microsites and I will be interested to see if the recently released .democrat extension will be used during the upcoming mid term elections….


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