Will 4L .COMs be more or less valuable a year from now?

4L .COMs

One of the biggest question that I’ve been asked by blog readers over the past month is, “will 4L .COMs drop in value over the next year?” Two months ago 4L .COM sales were going through the roof, then in January at NamesCon I heard people say the word “bubble” over and over, and I can’t tell you how many people I spoke with said they thought the 4L .COM market would soften over the coming year.

What do I think? I don’t think there’s a bubble, I do think that short .COMs are becoming more than brandable domains, I think they are turning into a real asset class. The focus used to be completely on keyword domains but now the concept of a Chinese premium (no vowels, and no v) shed light on a new way investors to the East were valuing domains.

I think 4L .COMs will be more valuable a year from now than they are today. But who cares what I think? I have no more data than the rest of you. So what do you think? Comment and let your voice be heard!

Photo Credit: Leo Reynolds via Compfight cc

{ 16 comments… add one }

  • Peter Rose February 7, 2016, 5:47 pm

    Personally I think 4L .coms will be more valuable over time. If I am not mistaken I have read somewhere that there are approx 450,000 combinations of all 4L COM’s. That is miniscule as compared to the number of domains out there. Those are all registered as well. Anyone who holds reasonable 4L com names should keep them for as long as they possibly can and bolt them on to a website. I regret selling one 3 months ago for $1K. It was just random letters but no vowels. I might try and buy it back!

    Reply
  • Elvis February 7, 2016, 6:32 pm

    I too regret selling some of my 4 LLLL’s cheap. I bought into the Domain Gang hype of falling prices and bad Chinese Economy and let some of my LLLL’s go for peanuts. I should have stuck to my gut feeling instead. I just sold one last week on Ebay for $787 and enquiries and prices are rising.
    A good LLLL.com will increase in price, believe me, don’t listen to the negative ninnies!

    Reply
  • Nidal Kadri February 7, 2016, 7:00 pm

    LLLL.com will continue to to rise in value. I am holding my 650 CHIPS for years and my strategic investment in this category was just because they are alternatives in my opinion to the LLL.coms since 2008. I do sell only for end users or for reasonable prices.
    Not only chinese investors are running after them. Westerns are too. A year ago, They started to bulk me with offers at $600 and raised them in jan to $2200. In every email they pop up with their insulting marketing strategy: the chinese market is declining and is doing correction! Just one simple thing: We are talking there about a big market about 1.5 billion people with more than 100,000 investoers running after 262,000 LLLL.com
    We see a range of $3500 to $4500 is very reasonable for the CHIPS and we will see a new climb within 90 days to reach that level. This is because the market of LLL.com is set now to a new level at $70,000
    Yes, the chinese market will do a correction but not for the LLLL.coms – they are now real and liquid assets (Not like the 4L.nets or the 5Ls or 3Ls.biz).

    Reply
  • Martin February 7, 2016, 7:59 pm

    “I regret selling one 3 months ago for $1K. It was just random letters but no vowels. I might try and buy it back!”

    Do we need any more indication of a bubble than the above?

    Reply
  • Thomas February 7, 2016, 8:25 pm

    “I have read somewhere that there are approx 450,000 combinations”

    You read somewhere? it is simple math – 26 x 26 x 26 x 26 = 456,976

    Reply
    • Domaineer August 17, 2017, 12:44 pm

      LMAO the formula is not 26x26x26x26…0-9 are also valid characters including the dash as long as it is not at the beginning or the end. The maths would look something like (36x37x37x36) = 1,774,224. Hopefully we are not counting the monies using your same fuzzy maths.

      Reply
      • Joseph Peterson August 17, 2017, 4:25 pm

        @Domaineer,

        It’s not fuzzy math. You’re just counting the wrong thing. Hyphens and numerals would disqualify a domain from belonging to the 4L category, as generally interpreted in this industry.

        Reply
  • AbdulBasit Makrani February 7, 2016, 9:18 pm

    I think it will rise in value. To me, these 4L .coms are still undervalued especially the non chips.

    Reply
  • Joe February 7, 2016, 10:07 pm

    I enjoy seeing you write 4L as if we could all have an equal big investors like you have for years.

    I for one can get 4L and 3L and 2L with new extensions to domain names premium about having a purchase price of $ 55,000 to $ 30.

    Keep in mind also an issue that I do not have before too much and are the numbers one, two, three, or even four numbers.

    The data is Rick with 888 sold for $ 800,000 and the last by the 417.com $ 169,000, and the 88.xyz $ 70,000.

    The Chinese market is very valuable but I think in written English is much better and give more successful your own original writing for us.

    I have to record enough for two three Chinese words but first I hope to sell everything you have this month and renew my portfolio from scratch.

    Reply
  • Honorarni posao February 7, 2016, 10:49 pm

    I believe 4L.coms, including chips, will go up in value even from these levels. It might be a bubble, but I don’t see it bursting soon. However, personally I would not call it a bubble, rather domain price correction which risen in this case. Short domains in .com are extremely rare and could be used as collectables as well. Common, people collecting postal stamps and papers with paint which looks like accident, why Chinese would not collect LLLL.coms? Domains could also be a vehicle for transferring money, or even for hiding it.

    Anyways, we all could only be guessing. Nobody knows what will happen.

    Reply
  • Krishna February 8, 2016, 12:54 am

    Never read domain blog if you want to received balanced opinions on the future of domains -there is always an optimistic opinion.

    Same thing about stocks/real estate.

    That is the nature. No one wants to see negative opinions about his/her investments.

    Good luck if that happens as I will also benefit from that.

    But, i don’t believe in these time pass predictions.

    Reply
  • Kemji February 8, 2016, 2:54 am

    I agree with your comments Morgan! I believe a full blown bubble is out of the question because the supply of 4L is constantly eroding. So HOW can prices go down when demand stays normal(or increases) AND supply is low? Ive learned to go with the fundamentals over domainers hype. 4L are kind of becoming the new 3L.com since 3L.coms are obviously mostly gone and out of common domainers/biz/investors hands now. 4L.coms are not going down in value IMO.

    Reply
  • Omar February 8, 2016, 10:30 am

    I don’t know but we shall see. How longer can they continue to go up in value, with such momentum?

    If you look a few years back in domain forums, some people never believed in 4 letter .coms at all and said they would be worthless, guess not.

    Let’s see what happens.

    -Omar

    Reply
  • keith UK February 8, 2016, 11:40 am

    4L .com way undervalued the minimum price should be $5,000 wholesale by end of year 2016 and possibly $10,000. Nowhere near properly valued. Bitcoing is at $350 and there will be 21 million of them eventually at curent price $350 each. Buy buy buy !

    Reply
  • Joseph Peterson February 8, 2016, 8:39 pm

    Speculating about the future is fun, flexible, free, and far from consequences or refutation … like spending with an infinite credit limit!

    Analyzing the present is gritty hard work. No surprise which activity is more popular!

    Reply
  • Joseph Peterson February 12, 2016, 5:24 pm

    Some of these comments posted late, I guess, because they just arrived in my inbox.

    The optimism is understandable, since people have their money invested in 4-letter .COMs; and it’s natural to want the best outcome.

    But it’s as if people have their heads in the sand! A newcomer could read these comments and not even realize that LLLL.com “CHIPs” spent 2 months going down sharply in price. People say things like

    “4L.coms are not going down in value IMO”

    and

    “Yes, the chinese market will do a correction but not for the LLLL.coms”

    What you mean they’re “not going down” or won’t “do a correction”? Between December and January, the number of LLLL.com “CHIPs” selling above $2k at NameJet dropped by a factor of 3. And during those 2 months, the average rate of decline in this category was at least $473 per month. I documented that trend in detail in an article published Tuesday.

    Optimism is fine. Say anything you like about the future; but we can’t pretend what’s already happened hasn’t, folks.

    Reply

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