Did you really expect all the new gTLDs to be a success?

So it’s no secret that new gTLDs have been in the news even more than usual lately. A lot of this was kicked-off earlier this month when Frank decided to increase the renewal prices on a bunch of new new gTLDs which seemed to ripple through the domain industry in a major way. I wrote an article titled, “Did Frank just burst the bubble?” which definitely created a fair amount of controversy with 29 comments and one comment which called me a cheerleader…

cheerleader

I guess I have to repeat myself over, and over, and over again until it hits home, so here we go. I think that most new gTLDs will fail. Yes, I said it, and I’ll keep saying it until everyone reads it. What the heck are the chances that over 1,000 new domain extensions will be a homerun? Slim to none.

That being said, I do think it’s realistic and probably damn important for our industry as a whole that at least some of the new gTLDs do take off. I also think there are some good examples of new domain extensions that are seeing real momentum like .CLUB, .XYZ, and .SITE to name a few. You can keep track of the leaderboard on one of my favorite sites, nTLDstats.com. Here’s the current top ten:

top-ten-newgtlds

So here’s my question for the all the new gTLD naysayers…sure, a ton of these new domain extensions will fail, and fail big…but did you really expect them all to be a success?

{ 8 comments… add one }

  • Snoopy March 28, 2017, 7:56 pm

    If you think 1 cent registrations are “momentum” Morgan then good luck, because .xyz is about to drop over a cliff.

    “So here’s my question for the all the new gTLD naysayers…sure, a ton of these new domain extensions will fail, and fail big…but did you really expect them all to be a success?”

    Morgan, why would a ntld naysayer have expected ntld’s to all be a success? Have you got that question around the wrong way? I’m a ntld naysayer, and I expected a disaster, but the disaster is bigger than I expected. I didn’t expect real registration numbers and usage to be so low, and I didn’t expect .brand to flop so quickly.

    Reply
  • Hans March 29, 2017, 7:23 am

    Interesting article. Can’t follow the reasoning though.

    —– I do think it’s realistic and probably damn important for our industry as a whole that at least some of the new gTLDs do take off.—–

    Damn important? Why? I think the industry did very well without. In what way is it important? It is not important at all frankly speaking.

    I am not sure if people understand that the nGTLD market does not need domainers because they can dynamically set prices themselves.

    This is a system were the registry goes after valuable terms and what is left over can be had by domainers. Over time the registry premium lists will increase not decrease. Once everything valuable has become premium there will be no dropcatching or domaining.

    Not sure if you understand the implications. Let me repeat: No buying expired domains anymore because the registry will sell the drops themselves. Again: Do you believe this is a ecosystem in which domainers can thrive or do well? How do you replenish inventory?

    Anyone thought about that? It seems not.

    Can the domain industry do well without .info or .tv? You bet it can. So why do you believe it needs a few successful nGTLD extensions more?

    —What the heck are the chances that over 1,000 new domain extensions will be a homerun? Slim to none.—

    What are the chances of picking a winner out of 1000 losers? Even lottery can produce winners, right. Does not mean it is a good investment.

    —-I also think there are some good examples of new domain extensions that are seeing real momentum like .CLUB, .XYZ, and .SITE to name a few. —-

    about .XYZ. .xzy has a bit more than 150k registrations with Godaddy. Godaddy has 30-50% of the end-user market therefore we can guess that around 450k end-user regs exist under .xyz.

    The rest is spam, promos, $1 regs, gamblers etc.. That extension is so far much worse than .info + it has premium terms reserved. Do you think it is a good idea to invest in an extension that is much worse than .info? I think not.

    Conclusion:

    If one cares about the industry one can only conclude that, the sooner the new extensions die the better. We will stop wasting time with extensions that are for the most part a waste of time and money, we won’t have to deal with a system that is rigged against domain investors and competes against them.

    So is this blog cheerleading the new extensions? I do not know since I don’t read it frequently but if I read things like: ” probably damn important for our industry as a whole that at least some of the new gTLDs do take off. ” then I am not surprised than some people believe that.

    My two .xyz registration fees.

    Reply
  • matt holmes March 29, 2017, 1:03 pm

    Morgan what are your thoughts on this?

    I had a friend want to buy trademark.attorney, but I told him that he should try to get the .com, too (trademarkattorney.com), because he would probably be increasing the value of the .com by building his base on .attorney. What do you think?

    Reply
  • Mike Sullivan March 29, 2017, 2:07 pm

    I think it’s fair to say, although I am purely speculating, that if you tally up all the dot coms ever registered, most of them were flops. I’d still rather own a dot com. There are some great and successful names on nTLDs as well. @Matt Holmes, I’d rather own trademarkattorney.com over trademark.attorney any day of the week. If he can get the former, there is no need for the latter.

    Reply
  • Mark Thorpe March 29, 2017, 4:29 pm

    The difference is that most nTLD cheerleaders are paid to promote nTLD’s whereas most .Com cheerleaders are not. Also, a lot of the nTLD cheerleaders used to be .Com cheerleaders and now they are coming back to be cheerleaders for .Com again.
    Make up your mind what side you are cheering for people, you can’t have your cake and eat too!
    Only in the domain Industry does stuff like this happen.

    Reply
    • Snoopy March 29, 2017, 5:29 pm

      The other day I was watching football, the team I was supporting was clearly going to lose so I just switched team in the 3rd quarter. Just an example of how thing happens outside of domains.

      Reply
  • John McCormac April 1, 2017, 3:47 am

    “I also think there are some good examples of new domain extensions that are seeing real momentum like .CLUB, .XYZ, and .SITE to name a few. ”

    This the major problem with people looking at numbers without understanding what they mean. Some of the new gTLDs have heavily discounted offers that effectively stuff the zones with domain names that do not renew. To people who see the zone count, they look impressive but it is only when one digs down into the concentrations of domains, the discounting models used and the usage of websites (Amateurs talk Parking. Professionals study Usage.) , that the true state of these gTLDs emerges. With a gTLD which is dependent on discounting as the core element of its business model, it is already locked into a boom and bust cycle where it is always chasing the next discounting registrar to keep the new registrations ahead of the deletions. What Frank did was acting like a registry operator rather than a domainer. It was a high risk move but the benefits, if it works, are far higher than having the bulk of domains either on PPC or undeveloped in some of his gTLDs. Developed domains (ones where there is a functional website) tend to renew at a higher rate than those that are not. The most important thing for any gTLD registry is to build that solid core of developed domains. If the registry operators don’t focus on this, then it lessens the survival chances for their gTLDs.

    Reply
  • w.w. December 2, 2017, 5:15 pm

    hi
    I am a student and a football (soccer) fan and I am thinking of creating a website for some football stuff. I searched 101domain etc. to see what url i can get and i almost decide that i want something [example].football . But i am concerned it may not be welcomed by fans and the public. Your blog popped up in the first page of google results for my key word search so I just want to ask here if it is a good idea to use .football? I guess your articles mentioning they won’t take off is in the context of domain investing but do you know an answer for my question in a marketing and SEO perspective? I for one, think that one disadvantage is that whenever i list my url in a poster/ad, i need to use the full url http://www.xxx.football (and may even mention .football is an extension) otherwise people just can’t know xxx.football is a website. will this change in the future?

    Reply

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